The retreat and acceleration of marine-terminating outlet glaciers in Greenland over the past 2 decades have been widely attributed to climate change. Here we present a comprehensive annual record of glacier terminus positions in northwest and central-west Greenland and compare it against local and regional climatology to assess the regional sensitivity of glacier termini to different climatic factors. This record is derived from optical and radar satellite imagery and spans 87 marine-terminating outlet glaciers from 1972 through 2021. We find that in this region, most glaciers have retreated over the observation period and widespread regional retreat accelerated from around 1996. The acceleration of glacier retreat coincides with the timing of sharp shifts in ocean surface temperatures, the duration of the sea-ice season, ice-sheet surface mass balance, and meltwater and runoff production. Regression analysis indicates that terminus retreat is most sensitive to increases in runoff and ocean temperatures, while the effect of offshore sea ice is weak. Because runoff and ocean temperatures can influence terminus positions through several mechanisms, our findings suggest that a variety of processes — such as ocean-interface melting, mélange presence and rigidity, and hydrofracture-induced calving — may contribute to, but do not conclusively dominate, the observed regional retreat.

The spatial distribution of ocean-induced melting beneath buttressing ice shelves is often cited as an important factor controlling Antarctica’s sea-level contribution. Using numerical simulations, we investigate the relative sensitivity of grounded-ice loss to the spatial distribution and overall volume of ice-shelf melt over two centuries. Contrary to earlier work, we find only minor sensitivity to melt distribution (<6%), with a linear dependence of ice loss on the total melt. Thus, less complex models that need not reproduce the detailed melt distribution may simplify the projection of future sea level. The linear sensitivity suggests a contribution of up to 5.1 cm from Pine Island Glacier over the next two centuries given anticipated levels of ocean warming, provided its ice shelf does not collapse because of other causes.

We introduce a new software package called 'icepack' for modeling the flow of glaciers and ice sheets. The icepack package is built on the finite element modeling library Firedrake, which uses the Unified Form Language (UFL), a domain-specific language embedded into Python for describing weak forms of partial differential equations. The diagnostic models in icepack are formulated through action principles that are specified in UFL. The components of each action functional can be substituted for different forms of the user's choosing, which makes it easy to experiment with the model physics. The action functional itself can be used to define a solver convergence criterion that is independent of the mesh and requires little tuning on the part of the user. The icepack package includes the 2D shallow ice and shallow stream models. We have also defined a 3D hybrid model based on spectral semi-discretization of the Blatter–Pattyn equations. Finally, icepack includes a Gauss–Newton solver for inverse problems that runs substantially faster than the Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS) method often used in the glaciological literature. The overall design philosophy of icepack is to be as usable as possible for a wide a swath of the glaciological community, including both experts and novices in computational science.

Speedup of Pine Island Glacier over the past several decades has made it Antarctica's largest contributor to sea-level rise. The past speedup is largely due to grounding-line retreat in response to ocean-induced thinning that reduced ice-shelf buttressing. While speeds remained fairly steady from 2009 to late 2017, our Copernicus Sentinel 1A/B-derived velocity data show a >12% speedup over the past 3 years, coincident with a 19-km retreat of the ice shelf. We use an ice-flow model to simulate this loss, finding that accelerated calving can explain the recent speedup, independent of the grounding-line, melt-driven processes responsible for past speedups. If the ice shelf’s rapid retreat continues, it could further destabilize the glacier far sooner than would be expected due to surface- or ocean-melting processes.

The recent influx of remote sensing data provides new opportunities for quantifying spatiotemporal variations in glacier surface velocity and elevation fields. Here, we introduce a flexible time series reconstruction and decomposition technique for forming continuous, time-dependent surface velocity and elevation fields from discontinuous data and partitioning these time series into short- and long-term variations. The time series reconstruction consists of a sparsity-regularized least-squares regression for modeling time series as a linear combination of generic basis functions of multiple temporal scales, allowing us to capture complex variations in the data using simple functions. We apply this method to the multitemporal evolution of Sermeq Kujalleq (Jakobshavn Isbræ), Greenland. Using 555 ice velocity maps generated by the Greenland Ice Mapping Project and covering the period 2009–2019, we show that the amplification in seasonal velocity variations in 2012–2016 was coincident with a longer-term speedup initiating in 2012. Similarly, the reduction in post-2017 seasonal velocity variations was coincident with a longer-term slowdown initiating around 2017. To understand how these perturbations propagate through the glacier, we introduce an approach for quantifying the spatially varying and frequency-dependent phase velocities and attenuation length scales of the resulting traveling waves. We hypothesize that these traveling waves are predominantly kinematic waves based on their long periods, coincident changes in surface velocity and elevation, and connection with variations in the terminus position. This ability to quantify wave propagation enables an entirely new framework for studying glacier dynamics using remote sensing data.

A system of subglacial lakes drained on Thwaites Glacier from 2012-2014. To improve coverage for subsequent drainage events, we extended the elevation and icevelocity time series on Thwaites Glacier through austral winter 2019. These new observations document a second drainage cycle in 2017/18 and identified two new lake systems located in the western tributaries of Thwaites and Haynes glaciers. In situ and satellite velocity observations show temporary < 3% speed fluctuations associated with lake drainages. In agreement with previous studies, these observations suggest that active subglacial hydrology has little influence on thinning and retreat of Thwaites Glacier on decadal to centennial timescales.

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades and it is expected to continue to be so. Although increases in glacier flow and surface melting have been driven by oceanic and atmospheric warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet's mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet's volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 ± 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 ± 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 ± 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 ± 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 ± 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbrae. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario, which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.

The speed of Greenland's fastest glacier, Jakobshavn Isbræ, has varied substantially since its speed-up in the late 1990s. Here we present observations of surface velocity, mélange rigidity, and surface elevation to examine its behaviour over the last decade. Consistent with earlier results, we find a pronounced cycle of summer speed-up and thinning followed by winter slowdown and thickening. There were extended periods of rigid mélange in the winters of 2016–2017 and 2017–2018, concurrent with terminus advances ~6 km farther than in the several winters prior. These terminus advances to shallower depths caused slowdowns, leading to substantial thickening, as has been noted elsewhere. The extended periods of rigid mélange coincide well with a period of cooler waters in Disko Bay. Thus, along with the relative timing of the seasonal slowdown, our results suggest that the ocean's dominant influence on Jakobshavn Isbræ is through its effect on winter mélange rigidity, rather than summer submarine melting. The elevation time series also reveals that in summers when the area upstream of the terminus approaches flotation, large surface depressions can form, which eventually become the detachment points for major calving events. It appears that as elevations approach flotation, basal crevasses can form, which initiates a necking process that forms the depressions. The elevation data also show that steep cliffs often evolve into short floating extensions, rather than collapsing catastrophically due to brittle failure. Finally, summer 2019 speeds were slightly faster than the prior two summers, leaving it unclear whether the slowdown is ending.

Smith, Pope, and Kohler glaciers and the corresponding Crosson and Dotson ice shelves have undergone speedup, thinning, and rapid grounding-line retreat in recent years, leaving them in a state likely conducive to future retreat. We conducted a suite of numerical model simulations of these glaciers and compared the results to observations to determine the processes controlling their recent evolution. The model simulations indicate that the state of these glaciers in the 1990s was not inherently unstable, i.e., that small perturbations to the grounding line would not necessarily have caused the large retreat that has been observed. Instead, sustained, elevated melt at the grounding line was needed to cause the observed retreat. Weakening of the margins of Crosson Ice Shelf may have hastened the onset of grounding-line retreat but is unlikely to have initiated these rapid changes without an accompanying increase in melt. In the simulations that most closely match the observed thinning, speedup, and retreat, modeled grounding-line retreat and ice loss continue unabated throughout the 21st century, and subsequent retreat along Smith Glacier's trough appears likely. Given the rapid progression of grounding-line retreat in the model simulations, thinning associated with the retreat of Smith Glacier may reach the ice divide and undermine a portion of the Thwaites catchment as quickly as changes initiated at the Thwaites terminus.

Ocean-induced basal melting is responsible for much of the Amundsen Sea Embayment ice loss in recent decades, but the total magnitude and spatiotemporal evolution of this melt is poorly constrained. To address this problem, we generated a record of high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for Pine Island Glacier (PIG) using commercial sub-meter satellite stereo imagery and integrated additional 2002–2015 DEM and altimetry data. We implemented a Lagrangian elevation change (Dh∕Dt) framework to estimate ice shelf basal melt rates at 32–256 m resolution. We describe this methodology and consider basal melt rates and elevation change over the PIG ice shelf and lower catchment from 2008 to 2015. We document the evolution of Eulerian elevation change (dh∕dt) and upstream propagation of thinning signals following the end of rapid grounding line retreat around 2010. Mean full-shelf basal melt rates for the 2008–2015 period were ~82–93 Gt yr^-1, with ~200–250 m yr^-1 basal melt rates within large channels near the grounding line, ~10–30 m yr^-1 over the main shelf, and ~0–10 m yr^-1 over the North shelf and South shelf, with the notable exception of a small area with rates of ~50–100 m yr^-1 near the grounding line of a fast-flowing tributary on the South shelf. The observed basal melt rates show excellent agreement with, and provide context for, in situ basal melt-rate observations. We also document the relative melt rates for kilometer-scale basal channels and keels at different locations on the ice shelf and consider implications for ocean circulation and heat content. These methods and results offer new indirect observations of ice–ocean interaction and constraints on the processes driving sub-shelf melting beneath vulnerable ice shelves in West Antarctica.

Ice loss measurements around the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet can provide key information on the response to climate change. Here we use the excellent spatial and temporal coverage provided by the European Space Agency (ESA) CryoSat satellite, together with NASA airborne Operation IceBridge and automatic weather station data, to study the influence of changing conditions on the bias between the height estimated by the satellite radar altimeter and the ice sheet surface. Surface and near-surface conditions on the ice sheet periphery change with season and geographic position in a way that affects the returned altimeter waveform and can therefore affect the estimate of the surface height derived from the waveform. Notwithstanding the possibility of a varying bias between the derived and real surface, for the lower accumulation regions in the western and northern ice sheet periphery (< ~1 m snow accumulation yearly) we show that the CryoSat altimeter can measure height change throughout the year, including that associated with ice dynamics, summer melt and winter accumulation. Further, over the 9-year CryoSat lifetime it is also possible to relate height change to change in speed of large outlet glaciers, for example, there is significant height loss upstream of two branches of the Upernavik glacier in NW Greenland that increased in speed during this time, but much less height loss over a third branch that slowed in the same time period. In contrast to the west and north, winter snow accumulation in the south-east periphery can be 2 – 3 m and the average altimeter height for this area can decrease by up to 2 m during the fall and winter when the change in the surface elevation is much smaller. We show that vertical downward movement of the dense layer from the last summer melt coupled with overlying dry snow, are responsible for the anomalous altimeter height change. However, it is still possible to estimate year-to-year height change measurements in this area by using data from the late-summer to early-fall when surface returns dominate the altimeter signal.

The choice of the best basal friction law to use in ice‐sheet models remains a source of uncertainty in projections of sea level. The parameters in commonly used friction laws can produce a broad range of behavior and are poorly constrained. Here we use a time series of elevation and speed data to examine the simulated transient response of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, to a loss of basal traction as its grounding line retreats. We evaluate a variety of friction laws, which produces a diversity of responses, to determine which best reproduces the observed speedup when forced with the observed thinning. Forms of the commonly used power law friction provide much larger model–data disagreement than less commonly used regularized Coulomb friction in which cavitation effects yield an upper bound on basal friction. Thus, adoption of such friction laws could substantially improve the fidelity of large‐scale simulations to determine future sea level.

We describe several new ice velocity maps produced by the Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) using Landsat 8 and Copernicus Sentinel 1A/B data. We then focus on several sites where we analyse these data in conjunction with earlier data from this project, which extend back to the year 2000. At Jakobshavn Isbræ and Køge Bugt, we find good agreement when comparing results from different sensors. In a change from recent behaviour, Jakobshavn Isbræ began slowing substantially in 2017, with a midsummer peak that was even slower than some previous winter minima. Over the last decade, we identify two major slowdown events at Køge Bugt that coincide with short-term advances of the terminus. We also examined populations of glaciers in north-west and south-west Greenland to produce a record of speed-up since 2000. Collectively these glaciers continue to speed up, but there are regional differences in the timing of periods of peak speed-up. In addition, we computed trends in winter flow speed for much of the south-west margin of the ice sheet and find little in the way of statistically significant changes over the period covered by our data. Finally, although the consistency of the data is generally good over time and across sensors, our analysis indicates that substantial differences can arise in regions with high strain rates (e.g. shear margins) where sensor resolution can become a factor. For applications such as constraining model inversions, users should factor in the impact that the data's resolution has on their results.

Geometry strongly controls the dynamic behavior of marine‐terminating (tidewater) glaciers, significantly influencing advance and retreat cycles independent of climate. Yet the recent, nearly ubiquitous retreat of tidewater glaciers suggests that changes in atmospheric and oceanic forcing may also drive dynamic change. To isolate the influence of geometry on tidewater glacier dynamics, we analyzed detailed observational time series from 2012 to 2016 for two tidewater glaciers with shared dynamic histories and environmental forcing: Columbia Glacier and its former tributary (Post Glacier) in southcentral Alaska. We find that although terminus retreat has driven decadal‐scale changes in dynamics of the Columbia‐Post system, environmental factors contribute to short‐term (i.e., seasonal) dynamic variability. In particular, analysis of force balance time series indicates that observed variations in speed result from seasonal changes to the subglacial hydrologic system and associated changes in basal drag. Variations in terminus position only drive noticeable speed change when the terminus retreats from regions of relatively high basal drag. In agreement with long‐term analyses of Columbia Glacier, we find that terminus geometry can perturb the timing of seasonal ice flow patterns. Specifically, our data support the idea that retreat of a glacier terminus into deeper water is accompanied by a shift in the primary control on frontal ablation. Although our analysis focuses on two Alaskan glaciers, our data suggest that changes in the relative importance of surface meltwater and buoyancy effects on submarine melting and/or calving may manifest as a shift in terminus change seasonality and offer a mechanism to identify frontal ablation controls.

Systematically monitoring Greenland's outlet glaciers is central to understanding the timescales over which their flow and sea level contributions evolve. In this study we use data from the new Sentinel-1a/b satellite constellation to generate 187 velocity maps, covering four key outlet glaciers in Greenland: Jakobshavn Isbrae, Petermann Glacier, Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden, and Zachariae Isstrøm. These data provide a new high temporal resolution record (6-day averaged solutions) of each glacier's evolution since 2014, and resolve recent seasonal speedup periods and inter-annual changes in Greenland outlet glacier speed with an estimated certainty of 10%. We find that since 2012, Jakobshavn Isbrae has been decelerating, and now flows approximately 1250 m yr^-1 (10%), slower than 5 years previously, thus reversing an increasing trend in ice velocity that has persisted during the last decade. Despite this, we show that seasonal variability in ice velocity remains significant: up to 750 m yr^-1 (14%) at a distance of 12 km inland of the terminus. We also use our new dataset to estimate the duration of speedup periods (80–95 days) and to demonstrate a strong relationship between ice front position and ice flow at Jakobshavn Isbrae, with increases in speed of  ~ 1800 m yr^-1 in response to 1 km of retreat. Elsewhere, we record significant seasonal changes in flow of up to 25% (2015) and 18% (2016) at Petermann Glacier and Zachariae Isstrøm, respectively. This study provides a first demonstration of the capacity of a new era of operational radar satellites to provide frequent and timely monitoring of ice sheet flow, and to better resolve the timescales over which glacier dynamics evolve.

Ice velocity is one of the products associated with the Ice Sheets Essential Climate Variable. This paper describes the intercomparison and validation of ice-velocity measurements carried out by several international research groups within the European Space Agency Greenland Ice Sheet Climate Change Initiative project, based on space-borne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. The goal of this activity was to survey the best SAR-based measurement and error characterization approaches currently in practice. To this end, four experiments were carried out, related to different processing techniques and scenarios, namely differential SAR interferometry, multi aperture SAR interferometry and offset-tracking of incoherent as well as of partially-coherent data. For each task, participants were provided with common datasets covering areas located on the Greenland ice-sheet margin and asked to provide mean velocity maps, quality characterization and a description of processing algorithms and parameters. The results were then intercompared and validated against GPS data, revealing in several cases significant differences in terms of coverage and accuracy. The algorithmic steps and parameters influencing the coverage, accuracy and spatial resolution of the measurements are discussed in detail for each technique, as well as the consistency between quality parameters and validation results. This allows several recommendations to be formulated, in particular concerning procedures which can reduce the impact of analyst decisions, and which are often found to be the cause of sub-optimal algorithm performance.

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) has become an essential tool for measuring ice sheet velocity in the Polar Regions. At low radar frequencies, e.g. L-band (1.2 GHz) but also at higher frequency, e.g. C-band (5.6 GHz), the ionosphere has been documented to be an important source of noise in these data. In this paper, we employ a split-spectrum technique and investigate its performance for correcting ionospheric effects in InSAR-based ice velocity measurements in Greenland and Antarctica. Three case studies using ALOS PALSAR data are used to assess the performance of the split spectrum technique for ionosphere correction over a range of environmental parameters. We employ several approaches to evaluate the results, including visual inspection, profile analysis, comparison of experimental and theoretic errors, comparison with reference data from other sources, generation of double difference interferograms, and analysis of time series of multi-temporal data. Our experiments show that ionospheric distortions are observed regularly, and in our analyzed Greenland dataset and Antarctic dataset the ionospheric noise reaches 14 m/yr and 10 m/yr, respectively, which exceeds the signal associated with ice motion. Our analysis using several different approaches demonstrates that the split-spectrum technique provides an effective correction. The split spectrum technique is also found to be superior to currently used approaches such as baseline fitting and multi-temporal averaging. The noise level is reduced by a factor of 70% in Greenland test areas and 90% in Antarctic test areas.

In the last 2 decades, Pine Island Glacier (PIG) experienced marked speedup, thinning, and grounding-line retreat, likely due to marine ice-sheet instability and ice-shelf basal melt. To better understand these processes, we combined 2008–2010 and 2012–2014 GPS records with dynamic firn model output to constrain local surface and basal mass balance for PIG. We used GPS interferometric reflectometry to precisely measure absolute surface elevation (z_surf) and Lagrangian surface elevation change (Dz_surf∕ Dt). Observed surface elevation relative to a firn layer tracer for the initial surface (z_surf – z_surf0′) is consistent with model estimates of surface mass balance (SMB, primarily snow accumulation). A relatively abrupt  ~0.2–0.3 m surface elevation decrease, likely due to surface melt and increased compaction rates, is observed during a period of warm atmospheric temperatures from December 2012 to January 2013. Observed Dz_surf∕ Dt trends (–1 to –4 m yr^-1) for the PIG shelf sites are all highly linear. Corresponding basal melt rate estimates range from  ~10 to 40 m yr^-1, in good agreement with those derived from ice-bottom acoustic ranging, phase-sensitive ice-penetrating radar, and high-resolution stereo digital elevation model (DEM) records. The GPS and DEM records document higher melt rates within and near features associated with longitudinal extension (i.e., transverse surface depressions, rifts). Basal melt rates for the 2012–2014 period show limited temporal variability despite large changes in ocean temperature recorded by moorings in Pine Island Bay. Our results demonstrate the value of long-term GPS records for ice-shelf mass balance studies, with implications for the sensitivity of ice–ocean interaction at PIG.

A decrease in the mass and volume of Western Palmer Land has raised the prospect that ice speed has increased in this marine-based sector of Antarctica. To assess this possibility, we measure ice velocity over 25 years using satellite imagery and an optimized modeling approach. More than 30 unnamed outlet glaciers drain the 800 km coastline of Western Palmer Land at speeds ranging from 0.5 to 2.5 m/d, interspersed with near-stagnant ice. Between 1992 and 2015, most of the outlet glaciers sped up by 0.2 to 0.3 m/d, leading to a 13% increase in ice flow and a 15 km³/yr increase in ice discharge across the sector as a whole. Speedup is greatest where glaciers are grounded more than 300 m below sea level, consistent with a loss of buttressing caused by ice shelf thinning in a region of shoaling warm circumpolar water.

A firn aquifer in the Helheim Glacier catchment of Southeast Greenland lies directly upstream of a crevasse field. Previous measurements show that a 3.5-km long segment of the aquifer lost a large volume of water (26,000–65,000 m² in cross section) between spring 2012 and spring 2013, compared to annual meltwater accumulation of 6000–15,000 m². The water is thought to have entered the crevasses, but whether the water reached the bed or refroze within the ice sheet is unknown. We used a thermo-visco-elastic model for crevasse propagation to calculate the depths and volumes of these water-filled crevasses. We compared our model output to data from the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM), which reveals the near-surface geometry of specific crevasses, and WorldView images, which capture the surface expressions of crevasses across our 1.5-km study area. We found a best fit with a shear modulus between 0.2 and 1.5 GPa within our study area. We show that surface meltwater can drive crevasses to the top surface of the firn aquifer (~20 m depth), whereupon it receives water at rates corresponding to the water flux through the aquifer. Our model shows that crevasses receiving firn-aquifer water hydrofracture through to the bed, ~1000 m below, in 10–40 days. Englacial refreezing of firn-aquifer water raises the average local ice temperature by ~4°C over a ten-year period, which enhances deformational ice motion by ~50 m year^–1, compared to the observed surface velocity of ~200 m year^–1. The effect of the basal water on the sliding velocity remains unknown. Were the firn aquifer not present to concentrate surface meltwater into crevasses, we find that no surface melt would reach the bed; instead, it would refreeze annually in crevasses at depths <500 m. The crevasse field downstream of the firn aquifer likely allows a large fraction of the aquifer water in our study area to reach the bed. Thus, future studies should consider the aquifer and crevasses as part of a common system. This system may uniquely affect ice-sheet dynamics by routing a large volume of water to the bed outside of the typical runoff period.

Surface meltwater can refreeze within firn layers and crevasses to warm ice through latent-heat transfer on decadal to millennial timescales. Earlier work posited that the consequent softening of the ice might accelerate ice flow, potentially increasing ice-sheet mass loss. Here, we calculate the effect of meltwater refreezing on ice temperature and softness in the Pakitsoq (near Swiss Camp) and Jakobshavn Isbrae regions of western Greenland using a numeric model and existing borehole measurements.

We show that in the Jakobshavn catchment, meltwater percolation within the firn warms the ice at depth by 3–5°C. By contrast, meltwater refreezing in crevasses (cryo-hydrologic warming) at depths of ~300 m warms the ice in Pakitsoq by up to 10°C, but this causes minimal increase in ice motion (<10 m a^-1). Pakitsoq is representative of western Greenland's land-terminating ice, where the slow movement of ice through a wide ablation zone provides ideal conditions for cryo-hydrologic warming to occur. We find that only ~37% of the western Greenland ice flux, however, travels through such areas. Overall, our findings suggest that cryo-hydrologic warming will likely have only a limited effect on the dynamic evolution of the Greenland ice sheet.

We use observations of ice sheet surface motion from a Global Positioning System network operating from 2006 to 2014 around North Lake in west Greenland to investigate the dynamical response of the Greenland Ice Sheet's ablation area to interannual variability in surface melting. We find no statistically significant relationship between runoff season characteristics and ice flow velocities within a given year or season. Over the 7 year time series, annual velocities at North Lake decrease at an average rate of –0.9 ± 1.1 m yr^-2, consistent with the negative trend in annual velocities observed in neighboring regions over recent decades. We find that net runoff integrated over several preceding years has a negative correlation with annual velocities, similar to findings from the two other available decadal records of ice velocity in western Greenland. However, we argue that this correlation is not necessarily evidence for a direct hydrologic mechanism acting on the timescale of multiple years but could be a statistical construct. Finally, we stress that neither the decadal slowdown trend nor the negative correlation between velocity and integrated runoff is predicted by current ice-sheet models, underscoring that these models do not yet capture all the relevant feedbacks between runoff and ice dynamics needed to predict long-term trends in ice sheet flow.

We present subannual observations (2009–2014) of a major West Antarctic glacier (Pine Island Glacier) and the neighboring ocean. Ongoing glacier retreat and accelerated ice flow were likely triggered a few decades ago by increased ocean-induced thinning, which may have initiated marine ice sheet instability. Following a subsequent 60% drop in ocean heat content from early 2012 to late 2013, ice flow slowed, but by < 4%, with flow recovering as the ocean warmed to prior temperatures. During this cold-ocean period, the evolving glacier-bed/ice shelf system was also in a geometry favorable to stabilization. However, despite a minor, temporary decrease in ice discharge, the basin-wide thinning signal did not change. Thus, as predicted by theory, once marine ice sheet instability is underway, a single transient high-amplitude ocean cooling has only a relatively minor effect on ice flow. The long-term effects of ocean temperature variability on ice flow, however, are not yet known.

While measurements of ice-sheet surface elevation change are increasingly used to assess mass change, the processes that control the elevation fluctuations not related to ice-flow dynamics (e.g. firn compaction and accumulation) remain difficult to measure. Here we use radar data from the Thwaites Glacier (West Antarctica) catchment to measure the rate of thickness change between horizons of constant age over different time intervals: 2009–10, 2010–11 and 2009–11. The average compaction rate to ~25 m depth is 0.33 m a^-1, with largest compaction rates near the surface. Our measurements indicate that the accumulation rate controls much of the spatio-temporal variations in the compaction rate while the role of temperature is unclear due to a lack of measurements. Based on a semi-empirical, steady-state densification model, we find that surveying older firn horizons minimizes the potential bias resulting from the variable depth of the constant age horizon. Our results suggest that the spatiotemporal variations in the firn compaction rate are an important consideration when converting surface elevation change to ice mass change. Compaction rates varied by up to 0.12 m a^-1 over distances <6 km and were on average >20% larger during the 2010–11 interval than during 2009–10.

Water-driven fracture propagation beneath supraglacial lakes rapidly transports large volumes of surface meltwater to the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet. These drainage events drive transient ice-sheet acceleration and establish conduits for additional surface-to-bed meltwater transport for the remainder of the melt season. Although it is well established that cracks must remain water-filled to propagate to the bed, the precise mechanisms that initiate hydro-fracture events beneath lakes are unknown. Here we show that, for a lake on the western Greenland Ice Sheet, drainage events are preceded by a 6–12 hour period of ice-sheet uplift and/or enhanced basal slip. Our observations from a dense Global Positioning System (GPS) network allow us to determine the distribution of meltwater at the ice-sheet bed before, during, and after three rapid drainages in 2011–2013, each of which generates tensile stresses that promote hydro-fracture beneath the lake. We hypothesize that these precursors are associated with the introduction of meltwater to the bed through neighbouring moulin systems (vertical conduits connecting the surface and base of the ice sheet). Our results imply that as lakes form in less crevassed, interior regions of the ice sheet, where water at the bed is currently less pervasive, the creation of new surface-to-bed conduits caused by lake-draining hydro-fractures may be limited.

We analyzed geophone and GPS measurements collected within the ablation zone of the western Greenland Ice Sheet during a ~35 day period of the 2011 melt season to study changes in ice deformation before, during, and after a supraglacial lake drainage event. During rapid lake drainage, ice flow speeds increased to ~400% of winter values, and icequake activity peaked. At times >7 days after drainage, this seismicity developed variability over both diurnal and longer periods (~10 days), while coincident ice speeds fell to ~150% of winter values and showed nightly peaks in spatial variability. Approximately 95% of all detected seismicity in the lake basin and its immediate vicinity was triggered by fracture propagation within near-surface ice (<330 m deep) that generated Rayleigh waves. Icequakes occurring before and during drainage frequently were collocated with the down flow (west) end of the primary hydrofracture through which the lake drained but shifted farther west and outside the lake basin after the drainage. We interpret these results to reveal vertical hydrofracture opening and local uplift during the drainage, followed by enhanced seismicity and ice flow on the downstream side of the lake basin. This region collocates with interferometric synthetic aperture radar-measured speedup in previous years and could reflect the migration path of the meltwater supplied to the bed by the lake. The diurnal seismic signal can be associated with nightly reductions in surface melt input that increase effective basal pressure and traction, thereby promoting elevated strain in the surficial ice.

Glacier ice discharge, which depends on ice velocity and terminus fluctuations, is a primary component of Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss. Some research suggests that ice melange influences terminus calving, in turn affecting glacier velocity. The details and broad spatiotemporal consistency of these relationships, however, is undetermined. Focusing on 16 northwestern Greenland glaciers during 2009 through summer 2014, we examined seasonal surface velocity changes, glacier terminus position, and sea ice and ice melange conditions. For a longer-term analysis, we also produced extended records of four glaciers from 1999 to 2014. There is a strong correspondence between seasonal near-terminus sea ice/melange conditions and terminus change, with rigid ice melange conditions associated with advance and open water associated with retreat. Extended sea ice-free periods and reduced rigid melange are also linked with anomalously large terminus retreat. In all but one case, sustained multiyear retreat of greater than 1 km during both the 15-year and 6-year records was accompanied by interannual velocity increases. Seasonal velocity patterns, however, correspond more strongly with runoff changes than terminus behavior. Projections of continued warming and longer sea ice-free periods around Greenland indicate that notable retreat over wide areas may continue. This sustained retreat likely will contribute to multiyear speedup. Longer melt seasons and earlier breakup of melange may also alter the timing of seasonal ice flow variability.

Moulins are important conduits for surface meltwater to reach the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet. It has been proposed that in a warming climate, newly formed moulins associated with the inland migration of supraglacial lakes could introduce surface melt to new regions of the bed, introducing or enhancing sliding there. By examining surface strain rates, we found that the upper limit to where crevasses, and therefore moulins, are likely to form is ~1600 m. This is also roughly the elevation above which lakes do not drain completely. Thus, meltwater above this elevation will largely flow tens of kilometers through surface streams into existing moulins downstream. Furthermore, results from a thermal ice sheet model indicate that the ~1600 m crevassing limit is well below the wet-frozen basal transition (~2000 m). Together, these data sets suggest that new supraglacial lakes will have a limited effect on the inland expansion of melt-induced seasonal acceleration.

We used satellite-derived surface temperatures and time-lapse photography to infer temporal variations in the proglacial ice melange at Jakobshavn Isbræ, a large and rapidly retreating outlet glacier in Greenland. Freezing of the melange-covered fjord surface during winter is indicated by a decrease in fjord surface temperatures and is associated with (1) a decrease in ice melange mobility and (2) a drastic reduction in iceberg production. Vigorous calving resumes in spring, typically abruptly, following the steady up-fjord retreat of the sea-ice/ice-melange margin. An analysis of pixel displacement from time-lapse imagery demonstrates that melange motion increases prior to calving and subsequently decreases following several events. We find that secular changes in ice melange extent, character and persistence can influence iceberg calving, and therefore glacier dynamics over daily-to-monthly timescales, which, if sustained, will influence the mass balance of an ice sheet.

Resting atop a deep marine basin, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has long been considered prone to instability. Using a numerical model, we investigate the sensitivity of Thwaites Glacier to ocean melt and whether unstable retreat is already underway. Our model reproduces observed losses when forced with ocean melt comparable to estimates. Simulated losses are moderate (<0.25 mm per year sea level) over the 21st Century, but generally increase thereafter. Except possibly for the lowest-melt scenario, the simulations indicate early-stage collapse has begun. Less certain is the timescale, with onset of rapid (> 1 mm per year of sea-level rise) collapse for the different simulations within the range of two to nine centuries.

We have extended the record of flow speed on Jakobshavn Isbrae through the summer of 2013. These new data reveal large seasonal speedups, 30 to 50% greater than previous summers. At a point a few kilometres inland from the terminus, the mean annual speed for 2012 is nearly three times as great as that in the mid-1990s, while the peak summer speeds are more than a factor of four greater. These speeds were achieved as the glacier terminus appears to have retreated to the bottom of an over-deepened basin with a depth of ~ 1300 m below sea level. The terminus is likely to reach the deepest section of the trough within a few decades, after which it could rapidly retreat to the shallower regions ~ 50 km farther upstream, potentially by the end of this century.

The climate of West Antarctica is strongly influenced by remote forcing from the tropical Pacific. For example, recent surface warming over West Antarctica reflects atmospheric circulation changes over the Amundsen Sea, driven by an atmospheric Rossby wave response to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Here, it is demonstrated that tropical Pacific SST anomalies also influence the source and transport of marine-derived aerosols to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Using records from four firn cores collected along the Amundsen coast of West Antarctica, the relationship between sea ice-modulated chemical species and large-scale atmospheric variability in the tropical Pacific from 1979 to 2010 is investigated. Significant correlations are found between marine biogenic aerosols and sea salts, and SST and sea level pressure in the tropical Pacific. In particular, La Nina-like conditions generate an atmospheric Rossby wave response that influences atmospheric circulation over Pine Island Bay. Seasonal regression of atmospheric fields on methanesulfonic acid (MSA) reveals a reduction in onshore wind velocities in summer at Pine Island Bay, consistent with enhanced katabatic flow, polynya opening, and coastal dimethyl sulfide production. Seasonal regression of atmospheric fields on chloride (Cl^-) reveals an intensification in onshore wind velocities in winter, consistent with sea salt transport from offshore source regions. Both the source and transport of marine aerosols to West Antarctica are found to be modulated by similar atmospheric dynamics in response to remote forcing. Finally, the regional ice-core array suggests that there is both a temporally and a spatially varying response to remote tropical forcing.

By thinning and accelerating, West Antarctic ice streams are contributing about 10% of the observed global sea level rise. Much of this ice loss is from Pine Island Glacier, which has thinned since at least 1992, driven by changes in ocean heat transport beneath its ice shelf and retreat of the grounding line. Details of the processes driving this change, however, remain largely elusive, hampering our ability to predict the future behaviour of this and similar systems. Here, a Lagrangian methodology is developed to measure oceanic melting of such rapidly advecting ice. High-resolution satellite and airborne observations of ice surface velocity and elevation are used to quantify patterns of basal melt under the Pine Island Glacier ice shelf and the associated adjustments to ice flow. At the broad scale, melt rates of up to 100 m yr^-1 occur near the grounding line, reducing to 30 m yr^-1 just 20 km downstream. Between 2008 and 2011, basal melting was largely compensated by ice advection, allowing us to estimate an average loss of ice to the ocean of 87 km³ yr^-1, in close agreement with 2009 oceanographically constrained estimates. At smaller scales, a network of basal channels typically 500 m to 3 km wide is sculpted by concentrated melt, with kilometre-scale anomalies reaching 50% of the broad-scale basal melt. Basal melting enlarges the channels close to the grounding line, but farther downstream melting tends to diminish them. Kilometre-scale variations in melt are a key component of the complex ice–ocean interaction beneath the ice shelf, implying that greater understanding of their effect, or very high resolution models, are required to predict the sea-level contribution of the region.

Over the past decade, ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet increased as a result of both increased surface melting and ice discharge to the ocean. The latter is controlled by the acceleration of ice flow and subsequent thinning of fast-flowing marine-terminating outlet glaciers. Quantifying the future dynamic contribution of such glaciers to sea-level rise (SLR) remains a major challenge because outlet glacier dynamics are poorly understood. Here we present a glacier flow model that includes a fully dynamic treatment of marine termini. We use this model to simulate behaviour of four major marine-terminating outlet glaciers, which collectively drain about 22 per cent of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using atmospheric and oceanic forcing from a mid-range future warming scenario that predicts warming by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, we project a contribution of 19 to 30 millimetres to SLR from these glaciers by 2200. This contribution is largely (80 per cent) dynamic in origin and is caused by several episodic retreats past overdeepenings in outlet glacier troughs. After initial increases, however, dynamic losses from these four outlets remain relatively constant and contribute to SLR individually at rates of about 0.01 to 0.06 millimetres per year. These rates correspond to ice fluxes that are less than twice those of the late 1990s, well below previous upper bounds. For a more extreme future warming scenario (warming by 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100), the projected losses increase by more than 50 per cent, producing a cumulative SLR of 29 to 49 millimetres by 2200.

Many glaciers along the southeast and northwest coasts of Greenland have accelerated, increasing the ice sheet's contribution to global sea-level rise. In this article, we map elevation changes on Upernavik Isstrøm (UI), West Greenland, during 2003 to 2009 using high-resolution ice, cloud and land elevation satellite laser altimeter data supplemented with altimeter surveys from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper during 2002 to 2010. To assess thinning prior to 2002, we analyze aerial photographs from 1985. We document at least two distinct periods of dynamically induced ice loss during 1985 to 2010 characterized by a rapid retreat of the calving front, increased ice speed, and lowering of the ice surface. The first period occurred before 1991, whereas the latter occurred during 2005 to 2009. Analyses of air and sea-surface temperature suggest a combination of relatively warm air and ocean water as a potential trigger for the dynamically induced ice loss. We estimate a total catchment-wide ice-mass loss of UI caused by the two events of 72.3 ± 15.8 Gt during 1985 to 2010, whereas the total melt-induced ice-mass loss during this same period is 19.8 ± 2.8 Gt. Thus, 79% of the total ice-mass loss of the UI catchment was caused by ice dynamics, indicating the importance of including dynamically induced ice loss in the total mass change budget of the Greenland ice sheet.

Our understanding of past sea-ice variability is limited by the short length of satellite and instrumental records. Proxy records can extend these observations but require further development and validation. We compare methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and chloride (Cl^–) concentrations from a new firn core from coastal West Antarctica with satellite-derived observations of regional sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Amundsen Sea (AS) to evaluate spatial and temporal correlations from 2002–2010. The high accumulation rate (~39 g x cm^-2 yr^-1) provides monthly resolved records of MSA and Cl^–, allowing detailed investigation of how regional SIC is recorded in the ice-sheet stratigraphy. Over the period 2002–2010 we find that the ice-sheet chemistry is significantly correlated with SIC variability within the AS and Pine Island Bay polynyas. Based on this result, we evaluate the use of ice-core chemistry as a proxy for interannual polynya variability in this region, one of the largest and most persistent polynya areas in Antarctica. MSA concentrations correlate strongly with summer SIC within the polynya regions, consistent with MSA at this site being derived from marine biological productivity during the spring and summer. Cl^– concentrations correlate strongly with winter SIC within the polynyas as well as some regions outside the polynyas, consistent with Cl^– at this site originating primarily from winter sea-ice formation. Spatial correlations were generally insignificant outside of the polynya areas, with some notable exceptions. Ice-core glaciochemical records from this dynamic region thus may provide a proxy for reconstructing AS and Pine Island Bay polynya variability prior to the satellite era.

We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth's polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by –142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, –65 ± 26, and –20 ± 14 gigatonnes year^-1, respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year^-1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.

The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice at accelerating rates, much of which is a response to oceanic forcing, especially of the floating ice shelves. Recent observations establish a clear correspondence between the increased delivery of oceanic heat to the ice-sheet margin and increased ice loss. In Antarctica, most of these processes are reasonably well understood but have not been rigorously quantified. In Greenland, an understanding of the processes by which warmer ocean temperatures drive the observed retreat remains elusive. Experiments designed to identify the relevant processes are confounded by the logistical difficulties of instrumenting ice-choked fjords with actively calving glaciers. For both ice sheets, multiple challenges remain before the fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models needed for rigorous sea-level projection are available.

Using new data, we build upon the nearly two-decade long record of observations from Jakobshavn Isbrae to investigate the processes driving its dynamic evolution. While winter flow speed has not increased substantially over the last three winters, there remains a strong seasonal variation in flow speed that coincides with a cycle of summer thinning and winter thickening. We relate changes in glacier speed to geometry through variations in basal traction and horizontal stresses, using ice-flow models constrained by satellite and airborne observations. These results suggest that the bed provides little flow resistance along the main trough within about 20 km of the terminus. While the loss of buttressing from the retreat of grounded and floating ice likely contributed to the initial speedup, other processes are of comparable significance at seasonal to decadal time scales. From analysis of the models, we hypothesize that thinning-induced change in basal effective pressure is the dominant process influencing near-terminus behavior, while diffusive processes drive the upstream response. The apparent need for the terminus to thin to near flotation before it can calve may limit the rate at which retreat occurs. Our analysis of the processes controlling the speed suggests little potential for further large acceleration. Thinning and elevated speeds may continue at rates similar to present, however, putting the glacier on course to retreat to the head of its deep trough in about a century, at which point it likely would stabilize with a thinner terminus.

Earlier observations on several of Greenland%u2019s outlet glaciers, starting near the turn of the 21st century, indicated rapid (annual-scale) and large (>100%) increases in glacier velocity. Combining data from several satellites, we produce a decade-long (2000 to 2010) record documenting the ongoing velocity evolution of nearly all (200 ) of Greenland%u2019s major outlet glaciers, revealing complex spatial and temporal patterns. Changes on fast-flow marine-terminating glaciers contrast with steady velocities on ice-shelf%u2013terminating glaciers and slow speeds on land-terminating glaciers. Regionally, glaciers in the northwest accelerated steadily, with more variability in the southeast and relatively steady flow elsewhere. Intraregional variability shows a complex response to regional and local forcing. Observed acceleration indicates that sea level rise from Greenland may fall well below proposed upper bounds.

The great Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are the "wild cards" in projections of sea-level change. Early models of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system treated the ice sheets as static white mountains. Observations since then have shown that ice sheets can change quickly: In some places, the tides strongly modulate coastal ice flow; in others, warming-induced ice-shelf loss has caused the flow speed of the subsequently unbuttressed inland ice to increase almost 10-fold within a few weeks. A new generation of full-stress ice-sheet models incorporates the physics needed to reproduce such processes. Including full stresses does improve ice-flow simulations. Well-validated, robust projections of ice-sheet behavior under climate change nevertheless remain a challenge, as they will require an ensemble of model ice sheets coupled to the rest of the climate system.

Jakobshavn Isbrae in west Greenland has been undergoing dramatic thinning since 1997. Applying the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technique to Radarsat-1 SAR data, we measure crustal uplift near Jakobshavn Isbrae caused by recent ice mass loss. The crustal uplift is predominantly at long spatial wavelengths (larger than 10 km), and thus is difficult to separate from InSAR orbit errors. We reduce the effects of orbit errors by removing long-wavelength deformation signals using conventional InSAR baseline fitting methods. We find good agreement between the remaining short-scale InSAR-estimated deformation rates during 2004–2008 and the corresponding short-scale components of a deformation model that is based on changes in ice elevation measured by NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM). We are also able to use the InSAR-measured deformation to invert for the spatial pattern of ice thinning. Overall, our results suggest that despite the inherent difficulties of working with a signal that has significant large-scale components, InSAR-measured crustal deformation can be used to study the ice mass loss of a rapidly thinning glacier and its surrounding catchment, providing both a constraint on any existing model of ice mass loss and a data source that can be used to invert for ice mass loss. These new applications of InSAR can help to better understand a glacier's rapid response to a warming climate.

Several Antarctic Peninsula (AP) ice shelves have lost significant fractions of their volume over the past decades, coincident with rapid regional climate change. Wilkins Ice Shelf (WIS), on the western side of the AP, is the most recent, experiencing a sequence of large calving events in 2008 and 2009. We analyze the mass balance for WIS for the period 1992–2008 and find that the averaged rate of ice-shelf thinning was ~0.8 m a^-1, driven by a mean basal melt rate of <w_b>=1.3±0.4 m a^-1. Interannual variability was large, associated with changes in both surface mass accumulation and <w_b>. Basal melt rate declined significantly near 2000 from 1.8±0.4 m a^-1 for 1992–2000 to ~0.75±0.55 m a^-1 for 2001–2008, the latter value corresponding to approximately steady state ice-shelf mass.

Observations of ocean temperature T obtained during 2007–2009 by instrumented seals reveal a cold, deep halo of Winter Water (WW; T ~ –1.6°C) surrounding WIS. The base of the WW in the halo is ~170 m, approximately the mean ice draft for WIS. We hypothesize that the transition in <w_b> in 2000 was caused by a small perturbation (~10–20 m) in the relative depths of the ice base and the bottom of the WW layer in the halo. We conclude that basal melting of thin ice shelves like WIS is very sensitive to upper-ocean and coastal processes that act on shorter time and space scales than those affecting basal melting of thicker West Antarctic ice shelves.

Hydrographic data acquired in Kangerlugssuaq Fjord and adjacent seas in 1993 and 2004 are used together with ocean reanalysis to elucidate water mass change and ice-ocean-atmosphere interactions in East Greenland. The hydrographic data show substantial warming of fjord waters between 1993 and 2004 and warm subsurface conditions coincide with the rapid retreat of Kangerlugssuaq Glacier in 2004-2005. The ocean reanalysis shows that the warm properties of fjord waters in 2004 are related to a major peak in oceanic shoreward heat flux into a cross-shelf trough on the outer continental shelf. The heat flux into this trough varies according to seasonal exchanges with the atmosphere as well as from deep seasonal intrusions of subtropical waters. Both mechanisms contribute to high (low) shoreward heat flux when winds from the northeast are weak (strong). The combined effect of surface heating and inflow of subtropical waters is seen in the hydrographic data, which were collected after periods when along-shore coastal winds from the north were strong (1993) and weak (2004). We show that coastal winds vary according to the pressure gradient defined by a semi-permanent atmospheric pressure system over Greenland and a persistent atmospheric low situated near Iceland. The magnitude of this pressure gradient is controlled by longitudinal variability in the position of the Icelandic Low.

We present subdaily ice flow measurements at four GPS sites between 36 and 72 km from the margin of a marine-terminating Greenland outlet glacier spanning the 2009 melt season. Our data show that >35 km from the margin, seasonal and shorter-time scale ice flow variations are controlled by surface melt-induced changes in subglacial hydrology. Following the onset of melting at each site, ice motion increased above background for up to 2 months with resultant up-glacier migration of both the onset and peak of acceleration. Later in our survey, ice flow at all sites decreased to below background. Multiple 1 to 15 day speedups increased ice motion by up to 40% above background. These events were typically accompanied by uplift and coincided with enhanced surface melt or lake drainage. Our results indicate that the subglacial drainage system evolved through the season with efficient drainage extending to at least 48 km inland during the melt season. While we can explain our observations with reference to evolution of the glacier drainage system, the net effect of the summer speed variations on annual motion is small (~1%). This, in part, is because the speedups are compensated for by slowdowns beneath background associated with the establishment of an efficient subglacial drainage system. In addition, the speedups are less pronounced in comparison to land-terminating systems. Our results reveal similarities between the inland ice flow response of Greenland marine- and land-terminating outlet glaciers.

Ice sheets are expected to shrink in size as the world warms, which in turn will raise sea level. The West Antarctic ice sheet is of particular concern, because it was probably much smaller at times during the past million years when temperatures were comparable to levels that might be reached or exceeded within the next few centuries. Much of the grounded ice in West Antarctica lies on a bed that deepens inland and extends well below sea level. Oceanic and atmospheric warming threaten to reduce or eliminate the floating ice shelves that buttress the ice sheet at present. Loss of the ice shelves would accelerate the flow of non-floating ice near the coast. Because of the slope of the sea bed, the consequent thinning could ultimately float much of the ice sheet's interior. In this scenario, global sea level would rise by more than three metres, at an unknown rate. Simplified analyses suggest that much of the ice sheet will survive beyond this century. We do not know how likely or inevitable eventual collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet is at this stage, but the possibility cannot be discarded. For confident projections of the fate of the ice sheet and the rate of any collapse, further work including the development of well-validated physical models will be required.

Recent changes in the dynamics of Greenland's marine terminating outlet glaciers indicate a rapid and complex response to external forcing. Despite observed ice front retreat and recent geophysical evidence for accelerated mass loss along Greenland's northwestern margin, it is unclear whether west Greenland glaciers have undergone the synchronous speed-up and subsequent slow-down as observed in southeastern glaciers earlier in the decade. To investigate changes in west Greenland outlet glacier dynamics and the potential controls behind their behavior, we derive time series of front position, surface elevation, and surface slope for 59 marine terminating outlet glaciers and surface speeds for select glaciers in west Greenland from 2000 to 2009. Using these data, we look for relationships between retreat, thinning, acceleration, and geometric parameters to determine the first-order controls on glacier behavior. Our data indicate that changes in front positions and surface elevations were asynchronous on annual time scales, though nearly all glaciers retreated and thinned over the decade. We found no direct relationship between retreat, acceleration, and external forcing applicable to the entire region. In regard to geometry, we found that, following retreat, (1) glaciers with grounded termini experienced more pronounced changes in dynamics than those with floating termini and (2) thinning rates declined more quickly for glaciers with steeper slopes. Overall, glacier geometry should influence outlet glacier dynamics via stress redistribution following perturbations at the front, but our data indicate that the relative importance of geometry as a control of glacier behavior is highly variable throughout west Greenland.

The proposed DESDynI mission is being planned by NASA to study earth change in three distinct disciplines ecosystems, solid earth, and cryospheric sciences. DESDynI would provide unique and unprecedented capabilities to the science community, with an imaging L-band radar proposed to include new modes and observational techniques, and a first-of a-kind multi-beam lidar for measuring canopy height metrics at fine spatial resolution. Under current planning scenarios, DESDynI could be ready to launch in 2017. In this paper, we describe the science objectives, how these lead to the measurements that achieve these objectives, and how these requirements lead to a mission design. The properties of the radar are then described, including a number of new radar modes and capabilities such as "SweepSAR" scan-on-receive techniques and split-spectrum acquisitions in single and multi pol configurations.

We use interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations recorded in a land-terminating sector of western Greenland to characterise the ice sheet surface hydrology and to quantify spatial variations in the seasonality of ice sheet flow. Our data reveal a non-uniform pattern of late-summer ice speedup that, in places, extends over 100 km inland. We show that the degree of late-summer speedup is positively correlated with modelled runoff within the 10 glacier catchments of our survey, and that the pattern of late-summer speedup follows that of water routed at the ice sheet surface. In late-summer, ice within the largest catchment flows on average 48% faster than during winter, whereas changes in smaller catchments are less pronounced. Our observations show that the routing of seasonal runoff at the ice sheet surface plays an important role in shaping the magnitude and extent of seasonal ice sheet speedup.

We analyze 2006–2009 data from four continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers located between 5 and 150 km from the glacier Jakobshavn Isbrae, West Greenland. The GPS stations were established on bedrock to determine the vertical crustal motion due to the unloading of ice from Jakobshavn Isbrae. All stations experienced uplift, but the uplift rate at Kangia North, only 5 km from the glacier front, was about 10 mm yr^-1 larger than the rate at Ilulissat, located only ~45 km further away. This suggests that most of the uplift is due to the unloading of the Earth's surface as Jakobshavn thins and loses mass.

Our estimate of Jakobshavn's contribution to uplift rates at Kangia North and Ilulissat are 14.6 plus/minus 1.7 mm yr^-1 and 4.9 plus/minus 1.1 mm yr^-1, respectively. The observed rates are consistent with a glacier thinning model based on repeat altimeter surveys from NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM), which shows that Jakobshavn lost mass at an average rate of 22 plus/minus 2 km³ yr^-1 between 2006 and 2009. At Kangia North and Ilulissat, the predicted uplift rates computed using thinning estimates from the ATM laser altimetry are 12.1 plus/minus 0.9 mm yr^-1 and 3.2 x 0.3 mm yr^-1, respectively. The observed rates are slightly larger than the predicted rates. The fact that the GPS uplift rates are much larger closer to Jakobshavn than further away, and are consistent with rates inferred using the ATM-based glacier thinning model, shows that GPS measurements of crustal motion are a potentially useful method for assessing ice-mass change models.

Using RADARSAT synthetic aperture radar data, we have mapped the flow velocity over much of the Greenland ice sheet for the winters of 2000/01 and 2005/06. These maps provide a detailed view of the ice-sheet flow, including that of the hundreds of glaciers draining the interior. The focused patterns of flow at the coast suggest a strong influence of bedrock topography. Differences between our two maps confirm numerous early observations of accelerated outlet glacier flow as well as revealing previously unrecognized changes. The overall pattern is one of speed-up accompanied by terminus retreat, but there are also several instances of surge behavior and a few cases of glacier slowdown. Comprehensive mappings such as these, at regular intervals, provide an important new observational capability for understanding ice-sheet variability.

We present an analysis of the active hydrologic system of MacAyeal Ice Stream (MacIS), West Antarctica, from a synthesis of multiple remote-sensing techniques: satellite laser altimetry; satellite image differencing; and hydrologic potential mapping (using a satellite-derived DEM and a bedrock DEM from airborne radio-echo sounding). Combining these techniques augments the information provided by each one individually, and allows us to develop a protocol for studying subglacial hydrologic systems in a holistic manner.

Our study reveals five large active subglacial lakes under MacIS, the largest of which undergoes volume changes of at least 1.0 km³. We discuss the hydrologic properties of this system and present evidence for links between the lakes. At least three of the lakes are co-located with sticky spots, i.e., regions of high local basal shear stress. We also find evidence for surface elevation changes due to ice-dynamic effects (not just water movement) caused by changes in basal resistance. Lastly, we show that satellite radar altimetry is of limited use for monitoring lake activity on fast-flowing ice streams with surfaces that undulate on ~10 km length scales.

Through the detection of surface deformation in response to water movement, recent satellite studies have demonstrated the existence of subglacial lakes in Antarctica that fill and drain on timescales of months to years. These studies, however, were confined to specific regions of the ice sheet. Here we present the first comprehensive study of these 'active' lakes for the Antarctic ice sheet north of 86°S, based on 4.5 years (2003-08) of NASA's Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimeter data. Our analysis has detected 124 lakes that were active during this period, and we estimate volume changes for each lake. The ICESat-detected lakes are prevalent in coastal Antarctica, and are present under most of the largest ice-stream catchments. Lakes sometimes appear to transfer water from one to another, but also often exchange water with distributed sources undetectable by ICESat, suggesting that the lakes may provide water to or withdraw water from the hydrologic systems that lubricate glacier flow. Thus, these reservoirs may contribute pulses of water to produce rapid temporal changes in glacier speeds, but also may withdraw water at other times to slow flow.

Water-filled cracks are an effective mechanism to drive hydro-fractures through thick ice sheets. Crack geometry is therefore critical in assessing whether a supraglacial lake contains a sufficient volume of water to keep a crack water-filled until it reaches the bed. In this study, we investigate fracture propagation using a linear elastic fracture mechanics model to calculate the dimensions of water-filled cracks beneath supraglacial lakes. We find that the cross-sectional area of water-filled cracks increases non-linearly with ice sheet thickness. Using these results, we place volumetric constraints on the amount of water necessary to drive cracks through ~1 km of sub-freezing ice. For ice sheet regions under little tension, lakes larger than 0.25–0.80 km in diameter contain sufficient water to rapidly drive hydro-fractures through 1–1.5 km of subfreezing ice. This represents ~98% of the meltwater volume held in supraglacial lakes in the central western margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

We use models constrained by remotely sensed data from Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers, West Antarctica, to infer basal properties that are difficult to observe directly. The results indicate strong basal melting in areas upstream of the grounding lines of both glaciers, where the ice flow is fast and the basal shear stress is large. Farther inland, we find that both glaciers have 'mixed' bed conditions, with extensive areas of both bedrock and weak till. In particular, there are weak areas along much of Pine Island Glacier's main trunk that could prove unstable if it retreats past the band of strong bed just above its current grounding line.

In agreement with earlier studies, our forward ice-stream model shows a strong sensitivity to small perturbations in the grounding line position. These results also reveal a large sensitivity to the assumed bed (sliding or deforming) model, with non-linear sliding laws producing substantially greater dynamic response than earlier simulations that assume a linear-viscous till rheology. Finally, comparison indicates that our results using a plastic bed are compatible with the limited observational constraints and theoretical work that suggests an upper bound exists on maximum basal shear stress.

We use ground-based and satellite observations to detect large diurnal and longer-period variations in the flow of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) during late summer that are strongly coupled with changes in its surface hydrology. The diurnal signals are associated with periodic changes in surface melting, and the longer-period signals are associated with the episodic drainage of supra-glacial lakes. Ice velocity doubles around 2 hours after peak daily melting and returns approximately to wintertime levels around 12 hours afterwards, demonstrating an intimate link between the surface and basal hydrology. During late summer, the ice sheet accelerates by 35% per positive degree-day of melting. The observed link between surface melting and enhanced flow is typical of Alpine glaciers, which may provide an appropriate analogue for the evolution of the GrIS in a warming climate.

A major problem for ice-sheet models is that no physically based law for the calving process has been established. Comparison across a diverse set of ice shelves demonstrates that iceberg calving increases with the along-flow spreading rate of a shelf. This relation suggests that frictional buttressing loss, which increases spreading, also leads to shelf retreat, a process known to accelerate ice-sheet flow and contribute to sea-level rise.

Several new data sets reveal that thinning and speedup of Jakobshavn Isbrae continue, following its recent rapid increase in speed as its floating ice tongue disintegrated. The present speedup rate of –5% a^-1 over much of the fast-moving region appears to be a diffusive response to the initial much larger speedup near the front. There is strong seasonality in speed over much of the fast-flowing main trunk that shows a good inverse correlation with the seasonally varying length of a short (typically ~6 km) floating ice tongue. This modulation of speed with ice front position supports the hypothesis that the major speedup was caused by loss of the larger floating ice tongue from 1998 to 2003. Analysis of image time series suggests that the transient winter ice tongue is formed when sea ice bonds glacier ice in the fjord to produce a nearly rigid mass that almost entirely suppresses calving. Major calving only resumes in late winter when much of this ice clears from the fjord. The collapse of the ice tongue in the late 1990s followed almost immediately after a sharp decline in winter sea-ice concentration in Disko Bay. This decline may have extended the length of the calving season for several consecutive years, leading to the ice tongue's collapse.

Repeat satellite laser altimetry is critical for observing the rapidly changing mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. However, sparse sampling and high surface slopes over rapidly thinning, coastal outlet glaciers may result in underestimation of mass loss. Here we supplement ICESat-derived surface elevation changes with differenced ASTER digital elevation models of outlet glaciers in southeastern Greenland, the region with the largest concentrated change in outlet glacier mass loss.

We estimate a 2002–2005 regional volume-loss rate of 108 km³/yr. Our results are consistent with drainage-scale GRACE and mass-budget estimates when differences in observation periods are taken into account. The two largest glaciers, Kangerdlugssuaq and Helheim, account for only 28% of the mass loss, illustrating the combined importance of smaller glaciers and the need for complete observational coverage. Additionally, we find that rapid, concentrated thinning within the outlets represents a small contribution to the total volume change compared to dispersed inland thinning.

Previous studies in Greenland show that retreat of tidewater glaciers may be linked to recent increases in ice loss, raising Greenland's contribution to sea level rise. We examined ice front changes of 203 tidewater glaciers, land-terminating glaciers, and glaciers terminating with ice shelves to understand Greenland glacier behavior over three periods: 1992–2000, 2000–2006, and 2006–2007. We observed synchronous, ice sheet-wide increases in tidewater retreat during 2000–2006 relative to 1992–2000, coinciding with a 1.1°C increase in mean summer temperature at coastal weather stations. Rates of retreat for the southeast and east slowed during 2006–2007 when temperatures were slightly cooler than the 2000–2006 average. Our work suggests that regional Greenland tidewater retreat responds strongly to climate change, with higher temperatures corresponding to increasing retreat, and helps confirm a link between ice thickness, velocity, and ice front position.

Surface meltwater that reaches the base of an ice sheet creates a mechanism for the rapid response of ice flow to climate change. The process whereby such a pathway is created through thick, cold ice has not, however, been previously observed. We describe the rapid (<2 hours) drainage of a large supraglacial lake down 980 meters through to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet initiated by water-driven fracture propagation evolving into moulin flow. Drainage coincided with increased seismicity, transient acceleration, ice-sheet uplift, and horizontal displacement. Subsidence and deceleration occurred over the subsequent 24 hours. The short-lived dynamic response suggests that an efficient drainage system dispersed the meltwater subglacially. The integrated effect of multiple lake drainages could explain the observed net regional summer ice speedup.

It has been widely hypothesized that a warmer climate in Greenland would increase the volume of lubricating surface meltwater reaching the ice-bedrock interface, accelerating ice flow and increasing mass loss. We have assembled a data set that provides a synoptic-scale view, spanning ice-sheet to outlet-glacier flow, with which to evaluate this hypothesis. On the ice sheet, these data reveal summer speedups (50 to 100%) consistent with, but somewhat larger than, earlier observations. The relative speedup of outlet glaciers, however, is far smaller (<15%). Furthermore, the dominant seasonal influence on Jakobshavn Isbrae's flow is the calving front's annual advance and retreat. With other effects producing outlet-glacier speedups an order of magnitude larger, seasonal melt's influence on ice flow is likely confined to those regions dominated by ice-sheet flow.

We used satellite images to examine the calving behavior of Helheim and Kangerdlugssuaq Glaciers, Greenland, from 2001 to 2006, a period in which they retreated and sped up. These data show that many large iceberg-calving episodes coincided with teleseismically detected glacial earthquakes, suggesting that calving-related processes are the source of the seismicity. For each of several events for which we have observations, the ice front calved back to a large, pre-existing rift. These rifts form where the ice has thinned to near flotation as the ice front retreats down the back side of a bathymetric high, which agrees well with earlier theoretical predictions. In addition to the recent retreat in a period of higher temperatures, analysis of several images shows that Helheim retreated in the 20th Century during a warmer period and then re-advanced during a subsequent cooler period. This apparent sensitivity to warming suggests that higher temperatures may promote an initial retreat off a bathymetric high that is then sustained by tidewater dynamics as the ice front retreats into deeper water. The cycle of frontal advance and retreat in less than a century indicates that tidewater glaciers in Greenland can advance rapidly. Greenland's larger reservoir of inland ice and conditions that favor the formation of ice shelves likely contribute to the rapid rates of advance.

A two-dimensional numerical model is used to simulate the dynamics of buoyant, meltwater-rich plumes flowing beneath the ice shelf occupying much of Pine Island Bay, West Antarctica. Recent studies have shown that this ice shelf, along with all others fringing the Amundsen Sea, is thinning rapidly. In the model, both the Coriolis effect and subshelf topography are important in controlling plume dynamics and the spatial distribution of ice melt. Melt is concentrated in a narrow zone within ~20 km of the grounding line where steep subshelf slopes and access to warm ambient water allow melt rates to exceed 100 m yr^-1. The plume generated by entrainment of ambient water into the meltwater in these areas is guided by the topography of the ice shelf underside and exits the ice shelf at three distinct outflow locations. Melt rates generated along the course of the plume are higher (approximately 2.5x) than rates elsewhere. The model suggests that the observed ice shelf thinning rates could have resulted from a hypothetical instantaneous 0.25°C warming of the ambient water entrained by the plume. A context for this value is provided by the 40-year warming trend documented by Jacobs et al. (2002) for Circumpolar Deep Water in the nearby Ross Sea.

The great ice sheets covering Antarctica and Greenland were, traditionally, believed to take thousands of years to respond to external forcing. Recent observations suggest, however, that major changes in the dynamics of parts of the ice sheets are taking place over timescales of years. These changes were not predicted by numerical models, and the underlying cause(s) remains uncertain. It has been suggested that regional oceanic and/or atmospheric warming are responsible but separating the influence and importance of these two forcings has not been possible. In most cases, the role of atmospheric versus oceanic control remains uncertain. Here, we review the observations of rapid change and discuss the possible mechanisms, in the light of advances in numerical modelling and our understanding of the processes that may be responsible.

Using satellite-derived surface elevation and velocity data, we found major short-term variations in recent ice discharge and mass loss at two of Greenland's largest outlet glaciers. Their combined rate of mass loss doubled in less than a year in 2004 and then decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates, likely as a result of fast re-equilibration of calving-front geometry after retreat. Total mass loss is a fraction of concurrent gravity-derived estimates, pointing to an alternative source of loss and the need for high-resolution observations of outlet dynamics and glacier geometry for sea-level rise predictions.

Water plays a crucial role in ice-sheet stability and the onset of ice streams. Subglacial lake water moves between lakes and rapidly drains, causing catastrophic floods. The exact mechanisms by which subglacial lakes influence ice-sheet dynamics are unknown, however, and large subglacial lakes have not been closely associated with rapidly flowing ice streams. Here we use satellite imagery and ice-surface elevations to identify a region of subglacial lakes, similar in total area to Lake Vostok, at the onset region of the Recovery Glacier ice stream in East Antarctica and predicted by ice-sheet models. We define four lakes through extensive, flat, featureless regions of ice surface bounded by upstream troughs and downstream ridges. Using ice velocities determined using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), we find the onset of rapid flow (moving at 20 to 30 m yr^-1) of the tributaries to the Recovery Glacier ice stream in a 280-km-wide segment at the downslope margins of these four subglacial lakes. We conclude that the subglacial lakes initiate and maintain rapid ice flow through either active modification of the basal thermal regime of the ice sheet by lake accretion or through scouring bedrock channels in periodic drainage events. We suggest that the role of subglacial lakes needs to be considered in ice-sheet mass balance assessments.

Marine and rift sediments exert a fundamental control on ice stream flow in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and hence on its mass balance and stability. In contrast, most ice streams in the much larger East Antarctic Ice Sheet are thought to be relatively stable features resting on till, perhaps underlain by crystalline rock. Any geological controls on East Antarctic Ice Sheet enhanced flow remain largely unknown. We present aerogeophysical evidence indicating that a region of enhanced ice flow in the interior of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is underlain by subglacial sediments ~3 km thick and that these are influencing the flow regime of the overlying ice. We show that subglacial sediments are important in modulating ice dynamics, not just for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but also for its much larger neighbor, and suggest that the sedimentary basin identified here may contain information on the Neogene glacial history of this part of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.

A significant amount of the measured coastal thinning of the Greenland ice sheet may be due to recent acceleration of outlet glaciers. Using remote sensing, we measured two major periods of speedup on Helheim Glacier between 2000 and 2005 that increased peak speeds from approximately 8 to 11 km/yr. These speedups coincided with rapid retreats of the calving front, totaling over 7.5 km. The glacier also thinned by over 40 m from 2001 to 2003. Retreat of the ice front appears to decrease resistance to flow and concentrates the gravitational driving force over a smaller area. Farther up-glacier, acceleration may be a delayed response to surface draw-down and steepening of the glacier's main trunk. If the 2005 speedup also produces strong thinning, then much of the glacier's main trunk may un-ground, leading to further retreat.

Earlier observations indicated that Whillans Ice Stream slowed from 1973 to 1997. We collected new GPS observations of the ice stream's speed in 2003 and 2004. These data show that the ice stream is continuing to decelerate at rates of about 0.6%/yr², with faster rates near the grounding line. Our data also indicate that the deceleration extends over the full width of the ice plain. Extrapolation of the deceleration trend suggests the ice stream could stagnate sometime between the middle of the 21st and 22nd Centuries.

Future sea-level rise is an important issue related to the continuing buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with the potential to raise sea level ~70 meters if completely melted, dominate uncertainties in projected sea-level change. Freshwater fluxes from these ice sheets also may affect oceanic circulation, contributing to climate change. Observational and modeling advances have reduced many uncertainties related to ice-sheet behavior, but recently detected, rapid ice-marginal changes contributing to sea-level rise may indicate greater ice-sheet sensitivity to warming than previously considered.

Borehole observations from the base of the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) reveal the presence of a 10 to 15 m thick accretionary basal ice layer in the upstream area of Kamb Ice Stream (KIS). This ice layer has formed over a time of several thousand years by freeze-on of subglacial water to the ice base and has recorded during this time basal conditions upstream of its current location. Analysis of samples and videos sequences from boreholes drilled to the bottom of KIS confirms that KIS-stoppage was due to basal freeze-on and that relubrication of the ice stream is well underway. These results further suggest that ice stream cyclicity may be shorter than expected (1000s of years) and that a restart of KIS may be imminent within decades to centuries.

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is surrounded by large floating ice shelves that spread under their own weight into the ocean. Ice shelf rigidity depends on ice temperature and fabrics, and is influenced by ice flow and the delicate balance between bottom and surface accumulation. Here, we use an inverse control method to infer the rigidity of the Ronne Ice Shelf that best matches observations of ice velocity from satellite radar interferometry. Ice rigidity, or flow law parameter B, is shown to vary between 300 and 900 kPa a^1/3. Ice is softer along the side margins due to frictional heating, and harder along the outflow of large glaciers, which advect cold continental ice. Melting at the bottom surface of the ice shelf increases its rigidity, while freezing decreases it. Accurate numerical modelling of ice shelf flow must account for this spatial variability in mechanical characteristics.

RADARSAT data from the 1997 Antarctic Mapping Mission are used interferometrically to solve for the 3-dimensional surface ice motion in the interior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). An area of ~125 km² in a tributary of the Kamb Ice Stream slumped vertically downwards by up to ~50 cm between September 26 and October 18, 1997. Areas in the Bindschadler Ice Stream also exhibited comparable upward and downward surface displacements. As the uplift and subsidence features correspond to sites at which the basal water apparently experiences a hydraulic potential well, we suggest transient movement of pockets of subglacial water as the most likely cause for the vertical surface displacements. These results, and related lidar observations, imply that imaging the change in ice surface elevation can help reveal the key role of water in the difficult-to-observe subglacial environment, and its important influence on ice dynamics.

We used Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar to study the detachment process that allowed two large icebergs to calve from the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica. Time series of rift geometries indicate that rift widths increased steadily, whereas rift lengths increased episodically through several discrete rift-tip propagation events. We also conducted modeling experiments constrained by the observed rift geometry. Both the observations and model suggest that rift opening, and, thus, tabular-iceberg calving, are largely driven by "glaciological" stresses — stress introduced by the effect of gravity on the ice shelf — rather than by stress introduced by the ocean and atmosphere, e.g., tides and storms. This style of rift propagation is expected to determine the steady, background calving rate of ice shelves and, thus, differs significantly from styles that led to the recent disintegration of ice shelves in response to climate warming, e.g., the Larsen B Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula.

It is important to understand recent changes in the velocity of Greenland glaciers because the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet is partly determined by the flow rates of these outlets. Jakobshavn Isbrae is Greenland's largest outlet glacier, draining about 6.5 per cent of the ice-sheet area, and it has been surveyed repeatedly since 1991. Here we use remote sensing data to measure the velocity of Jakobshavn Isbrae between 1992 and 2003. We detect large variability of the velocity over time, including a slowing down from 6,700 m yr^-1 in 1985 to 5,700 m yr^-1 in 1992, and a subsequent speeding up to 9,400 m yr^-1 by 2000 and 12,600 m yr^-1 in 2003. These changes are consistent with earlier evidence for thickening of the glacier in the early 1990s and rapid thinning thereafter. Our observations indicate that fast-flowing glaciers can significantly alter ice discharge at sub-decadal timescales, with at least a potential to respond rapidly to a changing climate.

We used control method inversions to determine the basal shear stress beneath the Ross ice streams where new high-resolution velocity data sets have recently become available. The inversion algorithm was adapted from an earlier viscous bed algorithm to allow solution for the basal shear stress corresponding to a weak plastic bed. We performed several experiments using synthetic data to determine the quality of the inversions. These experiments indicate that with high-quality surface elevation data (e.g., errors <5 m), the inversions are relatively robust with respect to errors in ice flow velocity and bed topography. The inversions are consistent with seismic and borehole observations and indicate that the Ross ice streams lie atop a bed that is nearly everywhere weak. In contrast, the tributaries feeding these ice streams overlie alternating patches of strong and weak bed.

Upstream of Byrd Station (West Antarctica), ice-penetrating radar data reveal a distinctive fold structure within the ice, in which isochronous layers are unusually deep. The fold has an axis more than 50 kilometers long, which is aligned up to 45° to the ice flow direction. Although explanations for the fold's formation under the present flow are problematic, it can be explained if flow was parallel to the fold axis ~1500 years ago. This flow change may be associated with ice stream alterations nearer the margin. If this is true, central West Antarctica may respond to future alterations more than previously thought.