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Eric Regehr Principal Quantitative Ecologist eregehr@apl.washington.edu Phone 206-685-3512 |
Education
B.S. Chemical Engineering, University of Kansas, 1998
Ph.D. Zoology & Physiology, University of Wyoming - Laramie, 2009
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Publications |
2000-present and while at APL-UW |
Evaluating harvest risk with limited data: A case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in East Greenland Regehr, E.V., K.L. Laidre, and F. Ugarte, "Evaluating harvest risk with limited data: A case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in East Greenland," Conserv. Sci. Pract., EOR, doi:10.1111/csp2.70353, 2026. |
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1 Aug 2026 |
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Evaluating the impact of human-caused removals on wildlife is challenging, especially when population data are limited, future monitoring is uncertain, and habitat conditions are changing. The East Greenland (EG) polar bear subpopulation contains 2275 animals (95% CI = 13603807) and is a subsistence resource for Indigenous Peoples. We developed a state-dependent modeling and management framework to evaluate different harvest strategies for EG bears. Our approach considered sea-ice loss and followed international consensus principles for the sustainable harvest of polar bears. Over the next 34 years (approximately three polar bear generations) and assuming a 2:1 male-to-female harvest sex ratio, the starting sustainable harvest ranged from 63 bears/year in the absence of scientific monitoring, to 93 bears/year if updated demographic parameters are estimated after 15 years and used to adjust the harvest, if necessary. We also identified an intermediate harvest strategy of up to 78 bears/year that requires a moderate level of monitoring and uses a threshold harvest rule. Our findings demonstrate how monitoring can make it possible to safely implement higher sustainable harvest levels (i.e., approaching maximum sustainable yield). Our methods are relevant to wildlife managers seeking to balance demographic risk, investment in monitoring, and opportunities for subsistence use. |
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First abundance estimate for the east Greenland polar bear subpopulation Laidre, K.L., T.A. Marques, B. Cohen, R.G. Hansen, E.V. Regehr, M.J. Zahn, J. Aars, J. Ware, H.L. Stern, and F. Ugarte, "First abundance estimate for the east Greenland polar bear subpopulation," Endang. Species Res., 59, doi:10.3354/esr01479, 2026. |
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12 Mar 2026 |
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Evaluating the demographic status of large mammals in dynamic habitats is challenging. The east Greenland (EG) polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation ranges over approximately 1.5 million km2 of sea ice and 18° of latitude along a mostly uninhabited coastline, making it the most expansive of the world's 20 polar bear subpopulations. We report on a distance-sampling aerial survey that provided the first estimate of abundance for EG polar bears. We used a density surface model (DSM) that corrected for incomplete detection on the transect line using mark-recapture methods, accounted for overall detectability via distance-sampling methods, and modeled bear density as a function of environmental covariates with a generalized additive model. Our study design was informed by Indigenous Knowledge surveys and 3 decades of polar bear movement data obtained from satellite telemetry. During MarchMay 2023, we flew 106.5 h on-effort over 26 survey days and sighted 84 groups of bears (108 individuals). Mean observed litter size was 1.6 (95% CI = 1.22.0) for cubs-of-the-year and 1.6 (95% CI = 1.31.8) for yearlings. Polar bear density was higher closer to land and along the continental shelf break offshore, where bathymetry deepens from 300 to 1000 m. Polar bear density was approximately 5 times lower within 50 km of subsistence hunting communities (0.06 bears 100 km-2) compared to the rest to the study area (0.31 bears 100 km-2). The best estimate of abundance for the EG subpopulation, adjusted for animals located outside the sampling area, was 2275 bears (CV = 0.27, 95% CI = 13603807). This estimate can be used to identify a sustainable level of subsistence harvest, manage humanbear conflicts, and monitor the effects of climate warming on EG polar bears. Our methods also provide a template for designing and conducting aerial surveys for wildlife populations inhabiting vast and remote regions. |
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Projecting the future of a threatened marine mammal in relation to climate warming Regehr, E.V., L. Quakenbush, A.L. Von Duyke, J.J. Citta, and J.M. Lindsay, "Projecting the future of a threatened marine mammal in relation to climate warming," Ecol. Appl., 35, doi:10.1002/eap.70127, 2025. |
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8 Dec 2025 |
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Climate warming is expected to impact global biodiversity, especially in the rapidly warming Arctic. There is an urgent need to evaluate the demographic effects of climate warming under different greenhouse gas emission pathways to guide wildlife management and inform listing decisions under protected species legislation. We used forecasted environmental variables to drive a novel demographic model for the ringed seal (Pusa hispida), a circumpolar Arctic marine mammal and critical subsistence resource for Indigenous people. Under the most demographically plausible conditions and assumptions, the projected abundance of ringed seals in the Chukchi Sea west of Alaska, USA, changed by an average of 7% (range 25% to 4%) by 2058 and 71% (range 96% to 8%) by 2100. The choice of greenhouse gas emissions pathway was the most important determinant of population outcomes through its influence on two habitat variables, snow-on-ice depth and sea-ice area. The choice of climate model, the intrinsic population growth rate, density dependence, and polar bear predation had a moderate influence on population projections, while harvest by Alaska Natives had a small influence. Modeling results suggest that ringed seals in the Chukchi Sea can exhibit stable or increasing recruitment at average April snow-on-ice depths below 2030 cm. Given that declining snow depth was central to listing the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, our work both represents the first quantitative investigation of future abundance for Alaskan ringed seals and is relevant to conservation assessments for the species. |
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In The News
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Polar bears of the past survived warm periods. What does that mean for the future? Anchorage Daily News, Ned Rozell A small population of polar bears living off Greenland and Arctic Canada increased by 1.6 times when comparing numbers from the 1990s to 2013 and 2014. Lighter sea ice might have benefited the animals because sunshine penetrates thinner ice better, which stimulates small living things. That means more food for seals, the main food of polar bears. |
3 Jun 2023
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UW polar bear expert appears in BBC-produced film about the Arctic UW News, Hannah Hickey A new production, "Arctic: Our Frozen Planet," narrated by Benedict Cumberbatch, screens May 25 and 27 at the Pacific Science Center in Seattle. Eric Regehr, a researcher at the UW Applied Physics Laboratory, appears in the film doing fieldwork on Wrangel Island, an island off the northeast coast of Russia that is home to the world’s highest concentration of polar bears. |
23 May 2023
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Why Russia's war in Ukraine is bad news for polar bears, too The Washington Post, Dino Grandoni The invasion is first and foremost a human tragedy, but it is also dire for wildlife, stalling scientific work on polar bears and other wildlife threatened with extinction. Sanctions and other policies have chilled scientific collaboration between American and Russian biologists, leading to nixed research trips, canceled conservation work, restricted funding and uncollected data related to imperiled species at risk of disappearing in the coming decades without human help. |
15 Apr 2023
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